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Climate-linked productivity losses cost African countries about 5% of GDP annually: AGESI

Researchers from Kenya and Ethiopia showcased evidence linking rainfall variability to declines in sectoral output.

• February 15, 2026
Africa Green Economy & Sustainability Institute
Africa Green Economy & Sustainability Institute logo [Photo: AGESI]

Productivity inefficiency linked to climate change is causing African countries to lose between three to five per cent of their Gross Domestic Product per year, according to the African Green Economy and Sustainability Institute (AGESI).

This was disclosed at the First African Symposium on Natural Capital Accounting and Climate-Sensitive Macroeconomic Modelling hosted at the Makerere University in Uganda last week.

During proceedings at the symposium attended by AGESI’s executive director Eugene Itua, delegates from Nigeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, Zambia and Sierra Leone, presented cases where environment degradation have had negative financial impacts on national budgets.

Meanwhile, researchers from Kenya and Ethiopia showcased evidence linking rainfall variability to declines in sectoral output and to increased stress on urban infrastructure. 

Following the presentation of hydrological stress indicators, climate-adjusted debt trajectories, and ecosystem service valuations by the countries, AGESI said the data it gathered further emphasised the need for institutionalisation of “climate-sensitive macroeconomic governance across Africa.”

The institution added, “The results require ministries of finance to adopt hydrologically continuous planning frameworks which reflect Africa’s ecological realities. AGESI’s presence ensured that these understandings feed into its continental training and research agenda.”

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