Voters in Canada’s oil-rich Alberta province will decide Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence.

The move could test the country’s national unity as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have rallied Canadians around their country.

Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves—the fourth largest in the world—will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.

More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43 per cent of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of Monday’s referendum, far exceeding the 810,000 who voted early in the 2023 provincial election.

But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement that has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics is not going away.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans not to take the outcome for granted and asked for a decisive result as he wrapped up two days of campaigning in his home province.

“Vote like Canada’s future depends on it because it does,” Mr Carney told a pro-Canada rally Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.

The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a deadly weekend fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright that killed four service members and injured 39 people, including 19 critically, during military training.

Mr Carney called it one of the worst peacetime tragedies for Canada’s military on domestic soil and ordered flags lowered to half-staff nationwide.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, recently cited a poll showing just 22 per cent support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.

The biggest cheers Mr Carney received at rallies in Calgary and Edmonton came when he spoke about diversifying Canada’s trade away from the United States.

Crowds erupted in applause at both events, underscoring how Mr Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have fuelled Canadian nationalism even in traditionally conservative Alberta.

Mr Carney has emerged as an unusually popular figure in conservative Alberta, where Liberal prime ministers have long faced resentment over federal energy policies.

He has also taken a more energy-friendly approach, backing a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast and joining Smith in a show of unity against independence.

Mr Carney warned that the referendum comes at the “worst possible time” and urged Albertans not to use their votes merely to send Ottawa a message.

(APnews/NAN)