More than 26,000 people in Somalia are expected to face catastrophic levels of food insecurity between October and December, as families recovering from drought brace for heavy rains and flooding, Save the Children has said.

In a statement on Thursday, new analysis from the global hunger monitor, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), warned that thousands of internally displaced children and families in Baidoa, southwest Somalia, are at risk of falling into IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe between October and December. 

It said many of these families spent the past year battling drought and now face the prospect of floods driven by forecast above-average rainfall.

The group said the warning is the second this year alone, adding that Burhakaba district in the Bay region of southwest Somalia is facing the risk of famine through June 2026. 

“This was the first such alert in Somalia since the devastating drought of 2022,” it said.

The latest analysis also projected that 5.4 million people, representing about 28 per cent of Somalia’s population, will face crisis-level hunger or worse between October and December.

The figure represents a slight improvement from projections released in May following seasonal harvests; Save the Children said it is nearly 60 per cent higher than the 3.4 million people who faced the same level of hunger during the corresponding period last year.

Save the Children said climate forecasts indicate a high probability of above-normal rainfall across central and southern Somalia between October and December.

The charity said similar conditions contributed to the 2023 floods, which affected 2.48 million people, displaced about two million and killed 188 people.

Mohamed Mohamud Hassan, Save the Children’s country director for Somalia, said the latest figures showed that the relief provided by the Gu rains would not last.

He said, “The Gu rains gave some families a short reprieve, but these figures show it will not last. Close to two million children will need treatment for malnutrition over the next year, and millions of families live along the Jubba and Shabelle, where the Deyr floods are most likely to hit.

“We saw what the 2023 floods did to children here, with families forced from their homes and hundreds of schools and health facilities damaged. This time the forecasts gave us months of warning.”

Mr Hassan said early funding was needed to prevent the anticipated floods from worsening the humanitarian crisis.