A survey by Humanitarian Law and Conflict Centre (HULACC) indicates that 75 per cent of young Nigerians are willing to riot over hikes in fuel price.

On March 11, a publication on the website of Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency indicated that a litre of fuel would be sold for prices ranging from N209 to N212 per litre for March, against N186 the crucial commodity retailed in February.

The proposed hike stirred deafening hues and cries from Nigerians forcing the government to promptly deny such move and the agency deleting the vexatious notice from its site with a disclaimer.

Since President Muhammadu Buhari assumed office in 2015, there have been periodic hikes in fuel price from the N87 per litre the current administration met it.

HULACC, in its report said that riots are inevitable considering that the same has occurred in past years, with reports of violence that broke out in major cities.

It said “fuel riots are almost a given, if: (i) With the possibility of history repeating itself; (ii) Risk factors interact in a manner likely to produce violent outcomes; (iii) There is a prevalence of triggers of violence such as high levels of human rights abuse, police brutality, rising inflation, excessive taxation.”

In a conclusion drawn from questionnaires distributed to one thousand youths in cities with a history of fuel riots, 750 of 1000 youths expressed their readiness to embark on riot.

The cities, included in the sample, according to HULACC, are Lagos, Ibadan, Benin City, Port Harcourt, Abuja, Jos, Kano and Onitsha.

“75% of our respondents answered “Yes”, 20% of our respondents answered “Maybe”, leaving 5% returning with “No” as an answer,” the agency said. 

“The non-recognition of fuel price hike as a trigger of conflict pervades public policy in Nigeria. While new research works earnestly appreciate the connection between fuel hike and conflict, it is important that public policy in Nigeria recognises this connection, perhaps as a tool kit necessary for preventing energy related conflict,” the report stated.

HULACC, however, recommended that “smarting from the recent #ENDSARS Protests, the government must learn useful lessons by rolling out public policies that would promote and strengthen the economic rights of citizens, to prevent riots. 

“Improve the social and economic conditions of citizens by promoting people-centred welfare and economic empowerment programmes; Initiate confidence-building measures with the aim of establishing cordial relationship between government and citizens; and increase mutual knowledge of each other’s interests;

“Develop a framework for sustained interaction and dialogue with the civil society, labour, youths and students, market women, artisans and representatives of the informal sector of the economy.”

This framework, according to HULACC, should “facilitate the kind of engagement and dialogue that allows for robust sharing of knowledge and experiences and promote long term preventive measures, reforms, initiatives, and peace processes for controlling and maintaining structural risk factors; 5. Cut waste in order to sustain a transparent oil subsidy regime.”

A report by France 24 in 2012, said one person was killed, with petrol stations shut and motorways blocked as rioters hijacked buses in Lagos over doubling of fuel prices.

Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Petroleum, Timipre Sylva, described the news of increase in fuel prices as ‘untrue’, while assuring that “neither Mr. President who is the Minister of Petroleum Resources, nor my humble self who deputise for him as Minister of State, has approved that the pump price of petrol should be increased by one naira. I would therefore urge you to disregard this misleading information.”