Osun state has a reputation for controversies bigger than its size. It ranks 26th nationally in terms of voter population and is six out of six in the South-West.

From 2010, when the Action Congress of Nigeria’s Rauf Aregbesola toppled Olagunsoye Oyinlola of the People’s Democratic Party through a court ruling, to the drama of the “inconclusive election” that installed Gboyega Oyetola eight years later, and Ademola Adeleke’s resurgence, Osun ranks amongst Nigeria’s leading political theatres.

It’s happening again on Saturday as Adeleke seeks reelection on the platform of the Accord Party (AP), with 14 other parties on the ballot. Top among them are the All Progressives Congress (APC) with Bola Oyebamiji as its candidate, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), fielding Najeem Salam. Despite appeals for a fair, peaceful, and credible election, the indications are that the major parties regard this election as a war.

Not worth dying for

According to Amnesty International, at least 29 people have been reportedly killed in 73 election-related violent incidents in Osun as of Tuesday. Yet, this week, a viral video emerged, showing Senator Francis Fadahunsi of the APC shamelessly and explicitly asking his supporters to “kill” members of the governor’s party within reach.

In a post on X, Afrobeats star Davido appealed to U.S. President Donald Trump for help in preventing election violence and later said, “Trump’s people had reached out to him.”  

Reports say APC’s 276-member National Campaign Council, led by Imo Governor Hope Uzodimma, has arrived in Osogbo, mobilised for Saturday’s election. The state of the living spring now looks like the Strait of Hormuz.

And it’s not just the arrival of generals, henchmen and supporters of the major parties that put Osun on a war footing. On Wednesday, a bank source told me that none of the branches in Lagos could pay out up to N5 million in cash. Politicians are raiding the banks, and Osun is floating on a dead sea of money, spooking fears that those who survive the bullets may also have to resist being buried in slush funds.

Perfect grudge match

But what is it about the state—or perhaps this election—that is threatening to bring down the roof? Two words: grudge match. Osun might be the patch for one of the bitterest grudge matches since the Godwin Obaseki v Adams Oshiomhole feud six years ago, except that this contest is missing the godfather factor.

Even though Oyetola defeated Adeleke in the 2018 supplementary elections, public folklore tells a different story. It claims Adeleke was cheated out of victory by the invention of an “inconclusive election” and the arrangement of supplementary polls that favoured Oyetola.

Adeleke never accepted defeat. He proved it four years later in the 2022 rematch when he stopped Oyetola’s second-term bid by defeating him with 28,344 votes, compared with the 482 votes that he lost against him in 2018.

O-legacy!

To be fair, Oyetola inherited a torrid legacy. His predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, had very lofty ideas, like paving a road to paradise built of O-asphalt, when all voters in the ultra-conservative state wanted were prompt payment of their salaries, pensions, and gratuities, and enough left to meet their cooperative society obligations.

The cumulative costs of the numerous O-programmes, not to mention the social cost of meddling with how students dress, the length of their skirts and the indomitability of their headdresses, took a heavy toll on Aregbesola’s good intentions and left a ragged treasury.

When Aregbesola left, Osun was exhausted from the APC years. The exhaustion haunted Oyetola during his first term, but the dwindling state and federal resources also compounded his misery and affected his re-election prospects.

Ballot and election

Oyetola may not be on the ballot on August 15, but he is in the race by proxy. The same goes for Aregbesola, Tinubu’s estranged protégé, who may well be having his last chance to prove his relevance in Osun politics, where he was once idolised.

Oyetola is desperate to settle accounts with Adeleke. His protege, Oyebamiji, is an accountant like him with an extensive private-sector background but a thin public-sector record. He was commissioner of finance under Aregbesola and later Oyetola, which makes it difficult for the APC candidate to distance himself from the chaotic financial past that still haunts his party.

The perception that Oyebamiji is Oyetola’s second term and that both men are two fingers of Tinubu’s hand poses a big problem. It reminds Osun voters of a past they’re trying to escape and a present in which the federal government’s economic policies have left them struggling.

In a free, fair and credible election, the outcome of Saturday’s poll will not only be a reflection of local sentiments in Osun but also a verdict on Tinubu’s performance on the national stage. That is a cross the APC candidate must bear.

Adeleke’s problems

This does not suggest that Adeleke is on a roll. To his credit, he’s done some things right. From day one in office, Adeleke promised he would pay the backlog of salaries, gratuities and pensions, and he has not failed, not even when most states were insolvent. He has also continued projects inherited from previous governments.

But the odds are huge enough to snag Adeleke’s dancing steps. Neither his offer to defect to the ruling APC, which Oyetola reportedly blocked, nor his promise to support Tinubu in the presidential poll appears to have brought him any relief. In a final act of desperation, he defected from the PDP to the Accord Party.

Adeleke has struggled to manage two parallel local government structures—one loyal to Oyetola, which receives federal allocations as a result of a disputed court order, and the other a full-fledged PDP-aligned cohort that emerged after last year’s local government election.

Running a state without control of the local government is like driving a car with three wheels. This misery, which Adeleke has endured, was the aberration at the heart of the feud between Minister Nyesom Wike and the Rivers’ Governor Siminalayi Fubara. Meanwhile, the Road Transport Workers’ Union in Osun—another influential platform in local politics, especially in the South-West—has been captured by the Agbero–General Extraordinaire Plenipotentiary, MC Oluomo, an APC enforcer.

All’s fair in politics

A source told me on Tuesday that the recent APC federal government’s decision to start the renovation of the Iwo-Ibadan highway from the Iwo end, rather than Osogbo as earlier planned, could be a last-minute effort to woo the Oluwo, whose domain, Iwo, is among the top four in voter numbers.

Also, high-profile defections to the APC, the candidacy of ADC’s Salam from Ejigbo, and pledges of allegiance could put Adeleke in a very tight spot. It remains to be seen whether Adeleke would benefit from the large voter base in Ife, where Iyiola Omisore’s malicious loyalty to the APC may have paved the way for a harvest. That might be easier for the governor if the allegations of Ede-nisation, an egregious form of cronyism that privileges his town and family members, do not come back to bite him.

“It may all come down to this,” my source said. “In a contest of margins, which is likely going to be the case in Osun, the incumbent has a better chance, but it’s such tight races that also make rigging much easier.”

Abetting the drumbeat

Regardless of its relatively small voter size and the drumbeat of war, which has become all too familiar, Osun has consistently maintained a voter turnout of over 40 per cent across many election cycles, above the national average.

The music in Osun is playing again, and hopefully, all the parties, including the election management body, will resist the seductive drumbeat of aiding and abetting a war.

Ishiekwene is the Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the book Writing for Media and Monetising It.