The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has warned of El Niño floods in Somalia, saying millions could face further hardship and hunger.

In a statement on Tuesday, the committee lamented that farmers in Bayahaaw village, on the outskirts of Jowhar town in central Somalia, face a devastating gamble: plant and risk losing everything to floodwaters or leave the fields bare and face hunger in the coming year.

“A similar phenomenon in 2023 wreaked havoc across the country, affecting close to two million people and displacing more than 500,000,” the ICRC stated. 

“For communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, levee breaches threaten to destroy livelihoods and submerge entire villages. Yet farming families can’t delay planting,” it added.

Citing the latest IPC analysis and several cases of farmers whose communities are vulnerable to floods, the committee warned that above-normal rains and subsequent flooding were expected to deepen hunger levels across the country.

“According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, above-normal rains and subsequent flooding are expected to deepen hunger levels across Somalia. For the 3.3 million people living in informal displacement settlements, the impending rains could mean further devastating hardship,” it added.

According to the ICRC, families displaced by conflict live in cramped shelters made of sticks, scraps of cloth, and iron sheets, and many camps have limited access to clean water and lack proper sanitation.

The committee disclosed that aid agencies were on high alert, rolling out anticipatory action measures and leveraging lessons learned from the 2023 disaster to mitigate damage before the floodwaters arrive.

It, however, said that humanitarian operations had shrunk considerably since then due to massive cuts affecting the sector. 

“Better preparation and better data. That’s the good news compared to 2023,” said Antoine Grand, head of ICRC in Somalia. “The bad news is that humanitarian funding and capacity in general have seriously decreased.” 

The ICRC noted that it partnered with the Somali Red Crescent Society to prepare for imminent floods by distributing sandbags, prepositioning essential supplies like tarpaulins, mosquito nets and hygiene items in flood-prone areas, and stocking supported health facilities with medical and nutrition supplies to ensure they remain operational.

It added that SRCS volunteers in Kismayo, Bardere, Jowhar and Beletweyne also received boat training to equip them with the necessary skills to respond during emergencies.

El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon that begins in the equatorial Pacific and can affect weather patterns across much of the globe, leading to droughts in some regions and heavier rainfall in others.

In Somalia, the event could intensify the October–December 2026 Deyr seasonal rains, bringing severe flooding, particularly along the Shabelle and Juba rivers.