Nigeria’s food crisis is often described as an agricultural challenge. Increasingly, it is something else: a test of whether the country can reinvent the financial systems that underpin food production.

The urgency is hard to ignore. Even as headline inflation eased to 15.9 per cent in June, food inflation accelerated month on month, driven by rising prices for staples such as tomatoes, peppers, yams, and cassava products. For millions of households, the cost of food remains one of the clearest indicators of economic vulnerability.

The instinctive response is usually to focus on seeds, fertiliser and farming subsidies. These matter. But they miss a deeper problem. Nigeria’s food-security challenge is not merely an agricultural problem. It is a financing problem, a data problem, and increasingly a technology problem.

For decades, policymakers, development institutions and financial institutions have sought to increase agricultural productivity. Yet one uncomfortable reality persists: the people responsible for feeding the country remain among the least visible participants in the formal economy.

No country can build resilient food systems while millions of farmers remain excluded from the financial infrastructure that enables investment, innovation and growth.

Agriculture remains central to Nigeria’s economy and to livelihoods across Africa. Yet, according to the African Development Bank, only about six per cent of African farmers have access to formal credit. That figure should alarm policymakers far more than it currently does.

The problem is not a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or productive capacity. It reflects a mismatch between traditional banking models and farming realities.

Conventional finance was designed for predictability. Agriculture rarely offers that.

Rainfall patterns shift. Commodity prices fluctuate. Crops fail. Insecurity disrupts supply chains. Farmers often operate without formal records, credit histories or conventional collateral. Faced with these uncertainties, financial institutions have historically viewed agriculture as inherently risky.

The result has been a self-reinforcing cycle. Farmers struggle to access credit, limited investment constrains productivity, and weak productivity reinforces perceptions of risk.

Breaking that cycle requires more than larger intervention funds or more generous lending quotas. It requires a fundamental rethink of how agricultural risk is measured and managed.

That rethink is already underway.

Across Africa, a new generation of technologies is beginning to reshape the economics of agricultural finance. Satellite imagery can track planting cycles. Weather intelligence can help anticipate climate shocks. Mobile platforms and USSD channels are creating transaction records for farmers who have long operated outside formal banking systems.

In parts of northern Nigeria, digital agronomy platforms already provide farmers with crop advice, market information and weather updates through mobile devices even in local languages. Increasingly, lenders and development institutions are using these data trails to make more informed credit decisions.

What was once anecdotal can now be measured. What was once informal can increasingly be documented.

This shift matters because data changes perception.

When farmers become visible—not merely as borrowers but as participants in a broader economic ecosystem—their risk profiles become easier to assess. Lending decisions improve. Insurance products become more effective. Supply chains become more resilient.

The true promise of agricultural technology, therefore, is not automation alone. It is the creation of trust.

Digital tools enable financial institutions to understand farming cycles more accurately, anticipate climate shocks, and tailor financing structures to local realities. For smallholder farmers, this can mean the difference between surviving a difficult season and building a sustainable enterprise.

But technology alone will not solve Nigeria’s food challenge.

The deeper transformation lies in new partnerships between banks, agritech companies, development institutions, and governments. Increasingly, innovation is not originating solely within ministries or regulatory frameworks; it is emerging from ecosystems willing to experiment with new models of collaboration and risk-sharing.

This evolution matters in a country where millions of farmers remain outside formal digital networks.

The rise of AI-powered advisory tools in local languages illustrates this shift. For many smallholder farmers, access to timely information on weather conditions, planting decisions, market prices and crop management can be as valuable as access to capital itself. Delivering these insights in languages people understand is not charity; it is sound economic design.

Nigeria’s challenge is hardly unique. Across sub-Saharan Africa, countries face the same question: how do they finance food systems in an age of climate volatility, rapid population growth and constrained public finances?

In that sense, Nigeria is more than a case study. It is a testing ground for solutions that could shape agricultural finance across the continent.

Climate change makes that challenge even more urgent. Economists warn that the emerging El Niño cycle could trigger significant disruptions to global food production and drive food-price shocks over the coming years.

Agricultural financing models designed for a more stable climate are increasingly ill-equipped for this new reality.

Building resilience into food systems will require new forms of risk-sharing, stronger data infrastructure, and financing mechanisms that can adapt to environmental shocks.

The stakes extend far beyond agriculture.

Food inflation is one of the most potent drivers of economic hardship and political instability. Supply disruptions affect household incomes, public health and social cohesion. Strengthening agricultural productivity is therefore not simply about supporting farmers; it is about safeguarding national prosperity.

Nigeria now faces a strategic choice.

It can continue relying on financing systems built for a different era—systems that exclude many of the people who feed the nation. Or it can embrace a more inclusive, data-driven model that recognises agriculture not as a peripheral sector, but as critical economic infrastructure.

The future of agriculture will not be determined solely by who owns the most farmland or produces the largest harvests. It will increasingly belong to those who build the smartest systems around farmers.

And in the decades ahead, food security may depend less on how much capital we deploy than on how intelligently we deploy it.

Kudzai Gumunyu is the divisional head of Agribusiness and Non-Oil Exports at First City Monument Bank.