As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks the halfway point of his first term in office, a new nationwide poll by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA) places his public approval rating at 37.2%, with 43.4% of respondents saying they disapprove of his performance. Another 12.2% remained neutral, while 7.2% declined to respond.

The poll posed a single, clear question: “Do you approve or disapprove of President Tinubu’s performance?” It was conducted by telephone between July 4 and 10, with interviews conducted in the respondent’s preferred language. The sample was selected using proportionate, stratified random sampling, a method designed to ensure national representativeness.

According to Sharon Orisakwe, CEO of EBDA, the methodology was deliberately rigorous: “The poll has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level. It represents the views of the Nigerian voting public.”

Global Context: How Tinubu’s Numbers Compare
Although approval ratings fluctuate across democracies, they offer a useful snapshot of how a sitting leader is perceived midway into their tenure. Compared with other current world leaders, President Tinubu’s numbers place him in the lower-middle tier globally.

In the United States, President Donald Trump, now well into his second term, currently polls at around 40% approval, depending on the pollster. That figure is only marginally higher than Tinubu’s. In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s approval hovers near 30%, reflecting voter frustration with persistent economic challenges.

Across the Channel in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ratings are even lower, with some polls showing his approval in the mid‑20s. French President Emmanuel Macron fares similarly, with approval estimates fluctuating between 24% and 29%, weighed down by public protests and unpopular reforms.

By contrast, Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama has maintained significantly stronger approval, with recent polls showing between 66% and 76% of Ghanaians expressing support for his leadership—a result attributed to a relatively stable economy and what analysts describe as a clear governing agenda.

What the Numbers Suggest
While Tinubu’s 37% approval rating reflects public concern over economic hardship, job creation, and insecurity, it also suggests that his administration retains a base of support that could grow with visible midterm gains. The numbers are not far off from those of other world leaders facing similarly complex challenges.

According to Orisakwe, EBDA will publish a more detailed breakdown of regional trends, demographic patterns, and issue-based sentiments in its forthcoming Mid-Year Public Sentiment Report.

“The approval ratings appear to reflect growing frustration with economic and security challenges facing the country,” Orisakwe said. “It’ll be interesting to see what effect new policies like the recently signed Tax Reform Act and the presidential directives to the military to end insecurity have on perceptions of President Tinubu’s performance in office.”

For now, the findings provide a crucial benchmark for understanding how Nigerians view their president at this critical midpoint; and how those views may evolve in the years ahead.