The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has said projected heavy rains in Somalia can affect 3.4 million people.

In a statement on Wednesday, OCHA noted that heavy rains forecast for October to December could impact 16 of the country’s 18 regions, particularly Hiraan, Middle Juba and Lower Juba.

“The potential flooding might match or surpass the severe 2023 and 1997 seasons – Somalia’s two worst flood benchmarks – and arrive before communities recover from the prolonged drought this year,” the statement read.

According to the UN agency, the combination of flooding, displacement and inadequate sanitation can heighten the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks, at a time when at least 380 health facilities closed or are operating at reduced capacity due to funding constraints. 

It explained that 115 mobile health units had closed, cutting off the only source of care for many remote and hard-to-reach populations.

The agency added, “The UN and its humanitarian partners – along with the Government –have stepped up preparedness efforts, including risk analysis, contingency planning, anticipatory action, community awareness, and pre-positioning of supplies. However, key gaps remain, particularly in funding and preparedness in high-risk locations.”

While building on lessons from the 2023 climate emergency – when floods and drought displaced 2.3 million people and affected millions more, OCHA said it was coordinating response preparedness at national and state levels to strengthen readiness for flooding and displacement.

The agency, however, said the window for preparedness was closing, urgently calling for additional resources to strengthen preparedness and early action ahead of the El Niño season. 

“This year’s $852 million Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is currently only 31 per cent funded, with $262 million received,” it added.

El Niño, which causes severe weather extremes across Africa, triggers devastating droughts in Southern Africa and heavy floods in East Africa.