The United Nations and Somalia have warned that millions of people across the country would face worsened levels of hunger alongside acute malnutrition among children amid the anticipated El Niño flood threat between October and December.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis, 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger and malnutrition between October and December 2026, including 1.5 million facing emergency levels of hunger or worse.

It noted that 1.92 million under the age of five, including 433,000 children with severe acute malnutrition, will need treatment between July and June 2027. The country’s malnutrition burden is concentrated within rural populations at nearly 62 per cent.

Internally displaced people in Belet Weyne and pockets within the displacement sites in Baidoa are projected to reach Extremely Critical levels (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5) as anticipated flooding disrupts access to services.

Acute malnutrition in Burhakaba district, Bay region, has improved after it was at risk of famine in April as a result of the Gu rains and a scale-up of the humanitarian response in that district. 

However, in Baidoa, also in the Bay region, the analysis indicated a risk of famine, with internally displaced people (IDPs) facing severe hunger and extremely high levels of malnutrition. The assessment was based on data collected in April, and a follow-up assessment is planned for October to provide new evidence and confirm the level of famine risk.

Humanitarian coordinator for Somalia, George Conway, said, “The humanitarian crisis in Somalia remains dire, and millions of people are at risk due to these high levels of hunger and malnutrition. 

The projected threat of El Niño-related flooding will further undermine already fragile livelihoods, displace vulnerable communities and increase the risk of disease. We call for urgent action and additional resources to protect lives, strengthen preparedness and prevent this crisis from deteriorating further.”

From October to December, it carries the highest risk due to the anticipated torrential El Niño-induced rains, which will affect rural riverine and agropastoral communities hardest, destroying crops and livestock, cutting households off from markets and income, and triggering new waves of displacement.

The Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) said 2.5 to 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, with one million likely to be displaced from areas where they farm and graze livestock, swelling the ranks of people already facing acute hunger.