Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 15.43 per cent in July from 15.91 per cent in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said.

The figure was disclosed in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, released on Monday. This represents a 0.48 percentage-point decline from the rate recorded in June.

However, the decline does not mean that prices of goods and services fell in July. It means average prices increased at a slower rate than in the same period last year.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.57 per cent in July, slightly lower than the 1.66 per cent recorded in June. This means that prices continued to rise between June and July, although at a slower pace.

The NBS said the CPI, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, increased to 145.3 points in July from 143 points in June.

The July inflation rate was also 9.51 percentage points lower than the 24.94 per cent recorded in July 2025.

Food prices hike

Despite the decline in overall inflation, food inflation increased sharply during the month.

Food inflation rose to 20.31 per cent in July from 17.52 per cent in June.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased to 5.56 per cent in July from 3.75 per cent in June.

The NBS attributed the monthly increase to higher prices of food items, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs and guinea corn.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to the headline inflation rate, accounting for 6.18 percentage points.

Restaurants and accommodation services followed with 1.99 percentage points, while transport contributed 1.64 percentage points.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.30 percentage points.

The figures suggest that many Nigerian households continued to face pressure from rising food costs despite the decline in the country’s overall inflation rate.

Core inflation slows

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of agricultural produce and energy because of their volatility, stood at 14.97 per cent in July.

This was lower than the 23.95 per cent recorded in July 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation dropped to 0.15 per cent in July from 1.66 per cent in June.

Urban inflation stood at 16.12 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was 13.77 per cent.

On a monthly basis, urban inflation was 1.90 per cent, compared with 0.78 per cent in rural areas.

Inflation across states

The report showed significant differences in inflation rates across states.

Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 33.03 per cent. Yobe followed at 25.21 per cent, and Anambra at 23.99 per cent.

Nasarawa recorded the lowest rate at 7.86 per cent, while Kebbi and Borno each recorded 9.12 per cent.

For food inflation, Adamawa also recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.

Borno recorded the lowest annual food inflation rate at minus 0.31 per cent. Nasarawa and Kebbi followed with 6.88 per cent and 12.50 per cent, respectively.

The NBS, however, cautioned against direct comparisons between states because household consumption patterns and the weight assigned to different items vary across locations.

Nigeria has struggled with rising living costs following the removal of the petrol subsidy and the weakening of the naira after foreign exchange reforms introduced in 2023.

The NBS rebased the CPI in 2025, changing the base year from 2009 to 2024 and updating the goods and services used to measure inflation to reflect current household spending patterns.

In July, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) retained its monetary policy rate at 26.5 per cent, citing the need to remain cautious about inflation and risks from developments in the global economy.