From 1961 to 2026, spanning 65 years of Nigeria’s existence as an independent state, there have been only five occasions when the country recorded double-digit real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth: 24.2 per cent in 1969, 25.01 per cent in 1970, 14.24 per cent in 1971,
11.16 per cent in 1974 and 15.33 per cent in 2002.

During the period between 1969 and 1974, when Nigeria experienced much of this double-digit real GDP growth, General Yakubu Gowon, Nigeria’s military Head of State from 1966 to 1975, was famously quoted as saying that Nigeria’s problem was not money but how to spend it, a remark associated with the 1970s oil boom. Between 1966 and 1975, the average price of crude oil was $6.47 per barrel, approximately $38.72 per barrel in 2026 when adjusted for inflation.

From available data, the only other time Nigeria recorded double-digit real GDP growth between 1961 and 2026 was in 2002, when the economy grew by 15.33 per cent.

This was Nigeria’s fourth-highest annual GDP growth rate over the last 66 years of the nation’s existence. It was achieved under the leadership of President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Between 1999 and 2007, Obasanjo steered Nigeria’s national security and foreign policy direction, while Atiku steered the country’s economic policy direction as the constitutionally recognized Chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC).

In 1999, the Obasanjo-Atiku administration inherited a pariah state blacklisted by the international community, with countries like the United States and the United Kingdom leading the isolation, and with real GDP growth of just 0.58 per cent. One year later, Atiku, as NEC
Chairman, with the assemblage of progressives and technocrats, grew the real GDP by 5.02 percent. It grew by 5.92 per cent in 2001 and 15.33 per cent in 2002. Between 2003 and 2007, when the administration left office, Nigeria’s real GDP growth stood at an average of 7 to 9 per cent.

More than 19 years later, no successive administration has been able to meet or surpass the economic records of the Obasanjo-Atiku years. It must be stated that the average price of crude oil between 1999 and 2007 was $15-$20 per barrel. The average inflation-adjusted price
between 1966 and 1975 is approximately $71.40 per barrel in 2026 dollars.

Among other things, despite the low oil prices during this period under review, the factors behind the surge in Nigeria’s real GDP growth included the political will to fix the country after years of international isolation, and the Atiku-led NEC assemblage of progressives and

technocrats such as Adamu Ciroma, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Rilwanu Lukman, Nasir El-Rufai, Oby Ezekwesili, Dora Akunyili, Charles Soludo, Tim Menakaya, Hassan Adamu, Olusegun Aganga, among others.

Other factors were the economic liberalisation in the telecommunications, education, and banking sectors. There was the recapitalisation of Nigeria’s banking sector in 2004 to boost the
country’s financial stability and trust in our banking systems; the pension administration reforms to improve fiscal discipline; the strong commodity export performance especially in oil and gas,
and the progressive power sector reforms which culminated in the building of seven integrated power plants (two in Olorunsogo Papalanto, Ogun State; two in Omotosho close to Ore, Ondo
State; one respectively in Benin, Edo State; Ohaji-Egbema, Imo State; and Calabar, Cross River State), which still powers Nigeria till date.

It must also be stated that between 1999 and 2007, Nigeria’s nominal GDP expanded considerably, alongside GDP per capita, from a paltry $80.94 billion in 1999 to a whopping $375.1 billion in 2007. It would also be recalled that during this period under review, our GDP per capita grew from a paltry $667 in 1999 to a mouth-watering $2,454 in 2007.

Fast forward to September 2026, the current All Progressives Congress (APC) regime of President Bola Tinubu, through its finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele, wants to convince unsuspecting Nigerians that with a paltry real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, that the regime was set to drive Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy by 2030

I dare say that, at a real GDP growth rate of three to four per cent, it is mathematically impossible for Nigeria’s economy to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Based on a 2026 nominal GDP baseline of roughly $377.4 billion, getting to $1 trillion by 2030 requires an annual growth rate of approximately 28 per cent.

The Tinubu-led APC regime would therefore need to grow Nigeria’s real GDP by over 15.33 per cent annually to meet or surpass the Obasanjo-Atiku era, before it can confidently roll out the red carpet and boast that it will drive the country into a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Nigeria’s real economy to grow at around four per cent over the medium term between 2027 and 2031. Per the IMF, Nigeria, with roughly four per cent real GDP growth, can only hit about $496.2 billion by 2031. Unsuspecting Nigerians
must be made aware of the “voodoo economics” peddled by Tinubu and his goons, such as Oyedele boasting that they will drive Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

It must also be stated that Nigeria has lost more than 20 multinational companies, which divested partially or totally under the APC. This is roughly $18–$19 billion total net Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) that has left Nigeria under the APC. Uber, an American multinational
transportation and technology company, is the latest multinational to abruptly end its business operations in Nigeria since entering the market in 2014.

Before Uber were Pick n Pay, Standard Biscuits, NASCO, Union Trading, Deli Foods, Tower Aluminum, Framan Industries, Stone Industries, Mufex Nigeria, Surest Foam, Universal Rubber,
Mother’s Pride, Errand Products, and Gorgeous Metal Makers. Those who have left since 2023 are Unilever, Procter & Gamble, GlaxoSmithKline, Shoprite, Sanofi-Aventis, Equinox, Bolt Food,
Jumia Food, Microsoft, Total Energies, PZ Cussons, Kimberly-Clark, Diageo, etc.

With these multinationals partially or totally divesting from Nigeria, the hit to the Nigerian economy has come in the form of job losses, supply-chain disruptions, reduced investment and, in some cases, lower tax revenues. Available data shows that the APC has plunged more than
150 million Nigerians into multidimensional and extreme poverty.
Finally, even with APC’s rehashed optimism of 10-12 per cent real GDP growth and a stable naira, Nigeria would only reach approximately $773 billion by 2030. Under more modest growth scenarios of four per cent real growth and continued naira depreciation, Nigeria’s economy per
the IMF, is projected to reach roughly $464.8 billion by 2030, delaying the $1 trillion milestone to around 2040. While the Tinubu regime cites recent improvements such as 4.43 per cent growth
in Q2 2026, however, these figures are insufficient to close the $600+ billion gap in four years.

It is therefore amusing that, despite boasting of growing Nigeria’s GDP by ten to twelve per cent annually, after over 12 years in power, the APC, currently being led by President Tinubu, has not been able to grow Nigeria’s GDP by even five per cent, half of what it promised Nigerians
first in 2015, then again in 2019, and for a third time in 2023.

For millions of Nigerians to begin to have a breath of fresh air again, the APC must be booted out of power in 2027.

● Ikenna Asomba is a political scientist and journalist. He writes from Illinois, United
States.