President Bola Tinubu is struggling to contain violent attacks and deaths, with grim statistics indicating a deterioration of widespread insecurity in Nigeria, a new security report reveals.

In a cautiously optimistic development, the latest Nigeria Security Report by Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited has revealed a significant decline in security incidents, fatalities, and abductions in June compared to the previous month.

The report analyses security trends across June, the second quarter (Q2), and the first half (H1) of 2025. It provides a critical snapshot of Nigeria’s evolving security landscape.

According to BSIL, June 2025 saw a 48 per cent drop in reported security incidents, falling from 895 in May to 465.

It further revealed that fatalities also decreased by over 14 per cent. Abductions plummeted by nearly 75 per cent, offering a glimmer of hope amidst an otherwise volatile national outlook.

“This month-on-month decline reflects a potential turning point in ongoing counter-insurgency and law enforcement efforts,” analysts from BSIL noted, while urging caution and sustained vigilance.

In spite of the positive June data, the report highlighted that civilian casualties have remained disturbingly high, accounting for over 72 per cent of all deaths that month.

It added that most fatalities were linked to farmer-herder clashes in the North-Central region. The North West remained the epicenter of abductions, accounting for 72 per cent of all reported kidnapping cases.

The report also presented mixed results across regions. It stated that April to June showed a slight overall drop in incidents, but a 5.66 per cent rise in fatalities. Conflict hotspots intensified in the North-Central and North-East regions.

BSIL report added that abductions were down by 11.45 per cent compared to Q1, signaling some success in efforts to curb mass kidnappings.

It added that Nigeria recorded 4,672 incidents and 6,800 fatalities in the first half of 2025. This represents a sharp 19 per cent increase in deaths compared to the first half of 2024.

“Zamfara State emerged as the deadliest flashpoint, topping the charts in both fatalities (1,088) and abductions (1,755). 

“While abductions saw a modest 2.4 per cent decline compared to the previous half-year, they still surged by 30 per cent year-on-year, underscoring the worsening threat from non-state armed groups, especially in rural and vulnerable areas,” the report said.

The report warns that insecurity will likely persist in the short term, particularly in the North-Central and North-West regions. This is driven by coordinated banditry, insurgency, and worsening socio-economic conditions.

According to BSIL, the presence of foreign-backed armed elements and local grievances remains a key driver of violence. These grievances include poverty, food scarcity, and communal disputes.

It recommended heightened community vigilance, improved security coordination, and targeted social interventions to address the root causes of instability.

“The interplay of communal violence, challenging terrain, enhanced threat actor capabilities (including foreign technical support), and persistent socio-economic grievances like hunger and poverty are exacerbating insecurity.

“Businesses and individuals are advised to monitor ongoing developments and adapt security protocols accordingly,” the report added. 

(NAN)