South African exporters are weighing potential job ​losses and squeezed margins after Washington moved to end the country’s duty-free access to the U.S. market.

Economists and ‌analysts said the broader economic fallout was likely to be limited.

Washington announced on Monday that it would suspend South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), its flagship duty-free trade programme for sub-Saharan African countries, from January 2027.

It said both countries had been declared ineligible due to practices that threaten U.S. interests.

South Africa had ​been the largest beneficiary of the programme, using it to export car parts, fruit and wine to the U.S. for two decades.

Chairman of the Citrus Growers’ ⁠Association of Southern Africa, Gerrit van der Merwe, said “the entire orchards ​have been planted specifically for the U.S. market.’’

He added that fruit cannot be diverted to other markets due to different health requirements and consumer preferences.

It is too early ​to say how many, but some people will unfortunately lose their jobs when this happens,” he said.

South Africa’s largest trade union, COSATU, said “with one of the highest unemployment rates ​in the world, South Africa will feel any losses.

“We cannot afford to abandon a single worker, business, industry or community,” it said, blaming white interest groups for spreading lies that led to South Africa’s exclusion.

President Donald Trump targeted the country largely due to what he says is its ​persecution of white people, which Pretoria said was a false narrative spread by fringe groups.

“It is long overdue that proponents of the white persecution ​myths appreciate the very real damage that their endless lobbying and antics in the U.S. have done to bilateral relations,” COSATU said.

However, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo ‌said there ⁠had been talk of removing South Africa from AGOA for more than a decade because it is an upper-middle-income country and should have a more reciprocal trade agreement with the US.

“Being excluded or graduating out of AGOA does not necessarily mean that South Africa loses market access to the US. All this means is that there will be additional tariffs,” he said.

For most products, it will be an additional tariff of around 3.4 per cent, ​he said. Almost 90 per cent of South ​Africa’s exports to the U.S. ⁠already fall outside of AGOA.

Business lobby group Business Unity South Africa said the number of job losses was likely to be in the range of a few thousand.

Rwanda’s trade with the U.S. is much ​smaller than South Africa’s.

The U.S. was its 10th biggest trading partner in 2024, according to the ​National Institute of Statistics ⁠of Rwanda.

Rwandan government officials did not respond to requests for comment about the suspension.

The U.S., Mexico and Canada market accounted for about eight per cent of South Africa’s automotive exports in 2025, with the U.S. taking the largest part, according to industry body naamsa.

However, automotive exports to the U.S. were already hit with new ⁠tariffs last ​year, effectively cancelling out AGOA benefits.

“This is far from a disaster. The numbers speak for ​themselves,” said South Africa’s trade ministry spokesperson on X.

The ministry said it was working with affected industries to assess the impacts and provide support, as well as accelerating the diversification ​of South Africa’s export markets. 

(Reuters/NAN)