Fitch Solutions, a research arm of Fitch Group, has predicted that Nigeria will experience public discontent and protests if Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, wins the 2023 general elections.

Fitch Solutions, in an October 26 report, tipped Mr Tinubu as most likely to win, though its surveys showed “significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate.”

“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians,” the company said. “A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”

In July, Mr Tinubu and running-mate Kashim Shettima faced backlash from the Christian community after the Catholic Church said it did not send any representation to the public presentation of Kashim Shettima as the vice presidential candidate of the APC.

Nigeria’s State Security Service also notified President Muhammadu Buhari that Mr Tinubu’s decision to nominate a fellow Muslim as vice-presidential candidate for the 2023 presidential election would possibly renew sectarian crises that could destabilise the nation. 

In the report, Fitch alludes to Mr Tinubu’s possible success with the Muslim-Muslim ticket being fronted by the APC. The partnership with Mr Tinubu and running-mate Mr Shettima will see the political party “repeat its strong performance in the North.”

Fitch also alludes to Mr Tinubu’s time as a former governor of Lagos and his being a beneficiary of incumbency advantages, as the APC has held onto power since 2015.